Digital Lending: by 2029, digital mortgages will account for 20% of real estate credit, reaching a total value of over €13 billion.

Milan, December 15, 2025 – By 2029, digital mortgages in Italy will account for 20% of real estate credit, reaching a total value of over €13 billion. This is according to new data from the Digital Lending 2025 Observatory, a collaboration between Monitor Deloitte, Experian, and Cetif, created with the aim of exploring key trends and the latest technological innovations that are revolutionizing the credit market.

• The volume of credit disbursed through digital channels reached €18.8 billion between 2019 and 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 38%.

• Mortgage offerings are now predominantly "phygital," but digital innovation introduced by major players in the sector is promoting the development of digital mortgages.

• AI-based conversational assistants will become increasingly central to the customer experience: by 2029, over 60% of users could be using them.

According to data from the Observatory, between 2019 and 2024, the volume of credit disbursed through digital channels alone has already reached €18.8 billion, with an average annual growth of 38%, significantly involving the mortgage sector as well, with a total of €6.1 billion disbursed digitally in 2024 and further growth recorded in the first half of 2025: +51% compared to the previous six months.

Today's mortgage offerings are predominantly "phygital" (combining the physical and digital experiences of account holders), but the entry of major traditional banking players into the digital ecosystem is redefining service standards and will drive growth in digital mortgage volumes over the next four years.

In fact, constant technological innovation in the credit sector is promoting the development of digital mortgages through advanced onboarding (biometrics, OCR, electronic signatures) and AI-based risk models, increasing acceptance rates and reducing default rates (1.5% in 2020 vs. 1.2% in 2024) for those applying for credit.

Furthermore, it is estimated that AI-based conversational assistants will become increasingly central to the customer experience: by 2029, over 60% of users could be using them to perform searches, gradually reducing the role of traditional online comparison sites.

In this context, the success factor for credit institutions will depend on their ability to respond to traditional customer needs (rates, amount disbursed) and, at the same time, compete on personalized experiential elements, such as customized offers, advice on complex activities, pre-decisions, and digital E2E customer journeys.

"The way banking is done has changed. Even a product such as a mortgage, historically linked to physical presence in a branch, is evolving and becoming increasingly digital," says Manuel Pincetti, Managing Partner at Monitor Deloitte. "Today, digital mortgages account for 15% of the volume disbursed in 2024 and, according to our estimates, will reach 20% in 2029, exceeding €13 billion, increasingly becoming the new normal. In this context, digital mortgages are no longer just an opportunity for banks to attract new customers and reduce cost-to-serve, but are now a key lever for competitiveness.

Mortgages will continue to be a strategic product, and the challenge for intermediaries will lie in their ability to meet the traditional needs of their customers, positioning themselves within the new AI conversational search engines and, at the same time, ensuring their proximity through hyper-personalization of services and no longer through the simple physical proximity of the branch.

"The digital transformation of credit is no longer a prospect, but a reality that is radically redefining the relationship between banks and customers. Consumer habits, which are increasingly digital in their interaction with credit institutions, require the digitization of the main forms of financing, from credit cards to personal and specialized loans, and even mortgages. In particular, digital mortgages are not simply an evolution of traditional mortgages: they are the new paradigm for accessing credit, based on simplicity, speed, and security.

Technologies such as Artificial Intelligence are breaking down historical barriers, making both onboarding and digital lending more inclusive and sustainable. In the coming years, the real competitive challenge will be the ability to offer fully digital customer journeys and hyper-personalized solutions that can anticipate customer needs and integrate with new conversational search engines. Experian is at the forefront of supporting operators with advanced analytics tools and innovative risk models, because the future of credit is not just digital: it is intelligent, predictive, and experience-oriented," says Giulio Mariani, Data & AI Director at Experian Italy.

"The advance of digital technology and artificial intelligence in the world of mortgages is a reality that requires a profound operational and organizational rethinking of the entire credit chain," says Chiara Frigerio, Secretary of Cetif ProfessorUniversità Cattolica Università del Sacro Cuore. "The review of processes, roles, and skills leads to the introduction of more integrated and data-driven working models. Here too, Artificial Intelligence plays a central role because, on the one hand, it enables more accurate predictive capabilities to support risk decisions; on the other, it simplifies and automates document management. The result is higher data quality and reduced processing times, with a clear advantage in terms of internal efficiency and effectiveness of action for the benefit of customers. Banks that are able to combine technological innovation, internal reorganisation and new skills will certainly have a decisive leverage to fully exploit the potential of digital lending and offer a truly end-to-end experience to their customers."