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More than 30,000 professionals make up the ecosystem of Cetif: we facilitate the meeting and exchange between banks, insurers and companies in an academic Center, competent and independent environment to share knowledge, experience and strategies on the most innovative drivers of change.
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The banking sector and the credit market are undergoing a profound transformation. Mobile remains the digital channel of choice for consumers: today, 60% of banked customers use it, a figure that is expected to rise to 80% by 2030. At the same time,internet banking is showing signs of stabilization, leveling off at 35%, with a forecast that remains largely stable over the next five years. This trend reflects consumers’ growing preference for mobile-first solutions, which are simpler, more immediate, and more intuitive.
In response to changing customer habits, banks are rethinking their digital offerings, increasingly shifting toward “self-banking” models. These solutions are complemented by digital branches focused on higher-value-added activities, while physical branches are being progressively redesigned to be more specialized and streamlined. In this rapidly evolving landscape, digital lending continues to grow at a rapid pace, projected to account for approximately 40% of the credit market by 2030, with an estimated value of around 60 billion euros.
These are some of the key findings from the new Digital Lending 2026 Observatory, produced in collaboration with Monitor Deloitte, Experian, and Cetif with the aim of becoming a new benchmark for insights into key industry trends, exploring growth prospects across various credit segments, key consumer characteristics, and the latest technological innovations transforming the banking sector.
Digital technology is driving growth in the credit market
In a context where the credit market is growing at a moderate pace (+5% CAGR from 2020 to 2025), the mix is becoming increasingly digital (24% in 2025 compared to 16% in 2024). The acceleration of online lending spans all credit sectors, with modest but significant growth for more complex products, such as mortgages (+19% CAGR ‘20–‘25), and much faster growth for instant solutions, such as BNPL (+71% CAGR ‘20–‘25). This segment, characterized by lower average transaction values, reflects a growing consumer preference for quick and flexible solutions, while also showing declining default rates.
Digital credit is used primarily by high-income men in Northern Italy who are part of the Millennial generation, although there are some significant differences across segments. Special-purpose credit is the product with the highest adoption rate among senior customers, while BNPL is the only product with greater prevalence in Southern Italy—where it meets a deeper demand for flexible and accessible payment solutions—and among female customers, with a strong concentration of purchases in the fashion sector, where it accounts for 76% of total transactions.
Digital technology is making inroads even into the most complex products, driven by the entry of established players
More complex products with higher average transaction values, such as mortgages, are undergoing a gradual yet significant shift toward digital channels (22% online in 2025 compared to 15% in 2024). The growing prevalence of digital channels is also drivenby the entry of incumbent operators into the sector, who are responding to evolving consumer needs with offerings increasingly oriented toward a digital-first approach, including through fully digital captive entities. At the same time, digital lending is increasingly benefitingfrom the adoption of advanced technologies, particularly Artificial Intelligence, which enables more accurate predictive capabilities and an overall improvement in service levels, making processes faster, simpler, and more efficient.